The decisive phase of the group stage at the 2025 TotalEnergies Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) gets underway on Monday, with the third and final round of group matches set to determine the remaining places in the Round of 16.
Only Egypt, Nigeria and Algeria have so far secured early qualification for the knockout stages, having won their opening two matches to establish commanding leads in their respective groups.
For the other 21 teams, the margin for error has vanished as qualification and elimination scenarios come sharply into focus.
To ensure sporting fairness, all final group matches will be played simultaneously within each group, beginning with Group A and Group B fixtures on Monday.
The group stage will officially conclude on New Year’s Eve, paving the way for the knockout rounds.
High Stakes Across the Groups
With several groups finely balanced, permutations abound. In some cases, a draw may be sufficient to seal progression, while others must secure all three points and rely on favourable results elsewhere. Goal difference, goals scored and head-to-head records are all likely to play a decisive role in determining who advances.
Today’s Action
Zimbabwe vs South Africa
One of the standout fixtures of the final round sees Zimbabwe take on South Africa in a high-stakes Southern African derby at the Grand Stade de Marrakech.
Victory for either side would guarantee qualification, while a draw could still offer hope depending on results elsewhere, with four places reserved for the best third-placed teams across the six groups.
Both teams know each other well and will be keen to avoid defeat in what promises to be a fiercely contested regional rivalry.
Zimbabwe head coach Marian Marinica has urged his players to put past frustrations behind them and approach the match as a fresh opportunity, while captain Marvellous Nakamba has called for belief, bravery and total commitment.
South Africa, meanwhile, is taking a pragmatic approach. Head coach Hugo Broos has emphasised the need for focus and discipline, acknowledging the threat posed by a Zimbabwe side with nothing to lose. Defender Nkosinathi Sibisi echoed that view, describing the encounter as “fundamental” to Bafana Bafana’s tournament ambitions.
Egypt vs Angola
Elsewhere in Group B, already-qualified Egypt face Angola, who must push for victory to keep their qualification hopes alive.
Mali vs Comoros, Morocco vs Zambia
In Group A, Mali take on Comoros, while hosts Morocco meet Zambia, with all three matches carrying significant implications for progression.
With qualification scenarios finely poised across the board, it is effectively winner-takes-all as the final round of matches unfolds in group A, as favourites and host Morocco lead with four points, just two ahead of rivals, Mali and Zambia, a permutation which throws the group open until the final whistle on Monday.
By the end of the day’s matches, at least four more teams will join Nigeria, Algeria and Egypt in the Round of 16, bringing much-needed clarity to who advances and who bows out of AFCON 2025.
 gets underway on Monday){kind=link}